Convergence

Convergence - which most people think of as the consolidation of home entertainment (tv, movies, music, games, etc.) and information (computing, Internet, etc.) technologies - is becoming more and more of a reality, regardless of whether or not it's a good idea.

Sony is leading the charge - they are building IM capabilities into the Playstation 2, and they're teaming with IBM and Toshiba on the "cell" processor, which may serve as the basis for the PS3 and seems to have the potential to serve as the basis for a wide array of internetworked consumer electronics. Only Sony has the breadth of hardware (computers, game consoles, home theater components, etc.) to really see this convergence thing through. This positions Sony very well not only for making a single device that acts as the "digital hub" for a household (to use a phrase coined by another major convergence player, Apple) but also the "spokes" to be attached to that hub.

And what about Apple? If you believe Steve Jobs, then their iLife strategy has put them "so far ahead of anybody, it's not funny." Clearly, they've done more tactically than Sony has - iPhoto, iMovie, iDVD, and of course iTunes at the bleeding edge of the portfolio - but Sony has a leg up on Apple in the strategy department. After all, an install base of 50 million PS2s (scroll down to the 15 Jan 03 press release) really sets Sony up for the long haul.

Microsoft won't go out with out a fight, though. Their moves into pervasive computing with WinCE and the palmtop PocketPC are clear (even if the mobile phone portion of the plan is a bit murky), but their acquisition of WebTV, development of the TiVo-esque UltimateTV, and even the Xbox itself shows that Microsoft is definitely interested in having their software appear on consumers' TVs. Adding DVR and other multimedia functionality to the Xbox, as has been widely rumored, is yet another step down this path.

As great as it all sounds, general purpose hardware/OSes/software have historically never fared as well as a system of purpose-built technologies that have a well-understood way to interact with each other. The fact that you're reading this post over the Internet is probably the best example of discrete technologies communicating via standard protocols to achieve the ever-elusive concept of synergy - a whole that's more than the sum of its parts. The true aim of convergence, in my humble opinion, should be to bring open protocols (either new or existing) to consumer electronics - not to try to build a single "set top box" that is all things to all applications.

Smart money is on a redefinition of the home network - TiVo's Home Media Option upgrade has the right idea by adding TCP/IP capabilities to their DVRs via a USB ethernet interface - not the all-in-one approach that has tried and failed so many times. I'll take communication over consolidation any day.

Posted by Dan on May 15, 2003 at 03:24 PM | TrackBack